【WGC特別対談】金価格上昇の背景に複数の要因/リスク局面が投資需要を一段と高める可能性/＜塚本 卓治 × ファン・カルロス アルティガス＞｜Pictet Market Lounge 2025.7
gold in the first half of the year traded on average about $330 billion per day. So what could the uh gold performance if the negative scenario for the macro economy occurs? Absolutely. And and you’re right to think that way because in reality consensus expectations not always materialize actually rarely materialize. diversifier. It also provides uh returns in a portfolio over time as we have seen historically and it adds a lot of liquidity therefore complementing many of the other traditional assets that investors have especially Japanese investors. Thank you for joining us. Thank you so much for having me. Your latest report, the gold midyear outlook 2025, has certainly captured our attention. It details an extraordinary first half of gold which rose 26% in US dollar terms. To begin, could you unpack primary factors that propelled this remarkable performance? Yeah, absolutely. Gold has had a very strong run as you mentioned and there have been a combination of factors behind it. One of them actually has been a fairly weak dollar. actually the the dollar has had one of the worst starts for the for the year since 1973. So that created tailwinds for gold. In addition to that, um there’s a combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions that have been on the rise this year as well as relatively rangebound interest rates. So combined all of these factors propelled investment demand uh which was also reflected for example in high trading volumes. Gold in the first half of the year traded on average about $330 billion per day. So you have analysis uh the gold price based on your uh gold return attribution model. Could you briefly explain the fact it is and uh what the attribution of the uh first half year performance? Absolutely. Graham is a very useful tool that we have available on on goldhub.com which is our website and it helps us um attribute the different key drivers of gold to how gold is moving and in particular of the 26% return that gold had in the first half of the year. uh we estimate that about 16 percentage points were directly or indirectly linked to trade related risks in particular through opportunity cost risk and uncertainty and momentum which collectively capture these 16%. So now uh looking forward the second half of this year. So what is your uh potential scenario you are looking for? Absolutely. I think for us it’s really important to help investors understand not only how gold performs normally but how it may perform in different scenarios. So the way that we tend to start is by looking at consensus expectations of key macroeconomic variables such as inflation interest rates um GDP and other variables that tend to influence gold’s performance. So if market expectations based on bond markets or economists expectations of the economy will come true. So if they do come true then we would expect gold prices to remain somewhat rangebound from here maybe with some upside potentially rising between zero and 5% between now and the end of the year. So the zero to 5% uh from this uh the latter half of this year still makes the total return of this year’s gold return to uh something like more than two 25%. So but uh we’re as a strategist I’m really focusing on the tail risk. So what could the uh world performance if the negative scenario for the macro economy occurs? Absolutely. And and you’re right to think that way because in reality consensus expectations not always materialize, actually rarely materialize. So we also focus on these additional um drivers that could move gold prices in different ways. In particular, we think that if geoeconomic and geo um and and financial conditions deteriorate, if we have a worse stackflation environment or potentially a recession or there’s more concerns about um the policies that the US administration is um establishing that could create jitters in financial markets and push investment demand further. And in particular, one of the things, one of the reasons why we think um this can actually occur is because even though we have seen strong investment demands so far this year, h we have not reached previous highs. So to put things into context in the first half of the year uh goldback ETFs have accumulated collectively about 400 tons but in previous periods of risk we have seen um these types of instruments accumulate anywhere from 700 to more than a thousand tons of gold. In this particular scenario in the bull case scenario we would expect gold prices to potentially increase between 10 and 15%. So there is a lot of room for uh institutional investors or the hedge fund can uh increase their position in term of that tailisk scenario. So what is the bare side for the gold scenario you’re looking for? Well um it’s the opposite the mirror opposite of what I just mentioned. If there’s a resolution of risk but not transient not just for 30 days or 90 days but a permanent resolution of risk whether it is trade related or geopolitical uh then gold may give back some of the gains that it has acquired through risk premium right uh and that could uh create headwinds for for for gold. Now given the current um geopolitical environment we do not necessarily think it is very likely but it can occur right and in that case gold may give up anywhere from uh 10 12 to 17% of the gains that it has had so far the year finishing the year positively but not as high as it is right now. So today thank you for uh insightful um analysis for the market. So do you have any final uh message to the Japanese investors for why we should hold gold in their portfolio? No, absolutely. Uh gold is a very useful diversifier. It also provides uh returns in a portfolio over time as we have seen historically and it adds a lot of liquidity therefore complementing many of the other traditional assets that investors have especially Japanese investors. And the other thing that is important to mention is that there are potential structural um support factors for gold including from new investors, instit institutional investors that are accessing the market as well as from continued central bank demand. Thank you for joining this uh program today. Thank you so much for having me.
●チャプター
00:00 「金」高まる投資需要 高値更新のシナリオに迫る
01:33 価格上昇の背景に“複数の要因”
02:27 解析モデルが明らかにする 主な価格変動要因
03:18 年後半 想定されるシナリオ
04:32 “リスク局面”が投資需要を一段と高める可能性
06:09 金相場“弱気シナリオ”も確認
07:08 日本の投資家へメッセージ
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塚本 卓治
ピクテ・ジャパン株式会社
シニア・フェロー
日系証券会社にて債券およびデリバティブ業務に従事した後、外資系運用会社および日系ファンド・リサーチ会社にて投資信託のマーケティングを担う。通算20年以上にわたり運用業界で世界の投資環境を解説。ピクテではプロダクト・マーケティング部長、投資戦略部長等を経て、現職。全国の金融機関や投資家を対象に講演を行う。マサチューセッツ工科大学（経営学修士）、日本証券アナリスト協会検定会員(CMA)、日本テクニカルアナリスト協会認定テクニカルアナリスト
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