すべての企業はビットコインの価値にトレンドするだろう
Every business will trend to its Bitcoin holdings and its ability to acquire Bitcoin in the future. I say this quite often, but I really want to explain exactly what this means. This is the way that I measure companies that I invest in. There’s all sorts of different ways that people measure companies, whether it’s forward PE, free cash flow, other KPIs around Bitcoin treasury companies. That’s key performance indicators such as Bitcoin gain or Bitcoin dollar gain or Bitcoin yield, all this kind of stuff. The way I look at it is how much does this company own in in the form of Bitcoin, which I believe is money, and how much Bitcoin will they acquire into the future? And what is their ability to acquire Bitcoin? Are they actually acquiring Bitcoin? And what would be their ability to acquire Bitcoin? So, we’re going to take a look at a few charts and go over exactly what I’m talking about here. and the reason that I only invest in a couple of businesses outside of holding spot Bitcoin in self-custody. But first, I want to introduce myself. My name is Forest Hodel and I’m a Bitcoin educator and I actually do one-on-one coaching sessions to cover Bitcoin best practices, security needs, all that kind of stuff, and to answer the questions that you might not even know to ask. There’s all sorts of mistakes you can make in this, and I want to help people avoid those mistakes and save them money in the long term. So, you can book me for a one-on-one session in the link in the description. So, this is something I’ve been saying for a while. And actually, Jeff Walton from the True North podcast, he uh created these charts that price net income of companies in Bitcoin. And I think these charts are a great example of what I’m talking about, of company’s ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future. Because right now, we measure Bitcoin Treasury companies based on the Bitcoin they have. There are some metrics of how much Bitcoin they can acquire, but these metrics are very very difficult to actually um you know really use like MNAV months to cover makes sense if you’re looking at a static MNAV, but that MNAV is always fluctuating. So, we’ll go over that in the future, but first, let’s take a look at a couple of these charts that Jeff has made of other companies where he’s priced their net income for quarters in Bitcoin at the price of Bitcoin at the time. So, this is Jeff Walton, punter Jeff on Twitter. He did this one here for Crowdstrike, which the reason he did that is because Crowdstrike is six companies ahead in market cap compared to Strategy at the time of this creation. So strategy number 98 in all of US companies market cap right now as of this chart creation and Crowdstrike 92. So um 4 billion more higher on the uh market cap. So what we have here is um Crowdstrike recently included in the S&P 500 for four positive quarters. Um the the past four cumulative quarters of strategy are positive as well. So very likely it could be included in the S&P 500 just as Crowdstrike has. So here we have if Crowdstrike were to buy Bitcoin with 100% of net income in those positive quarters, it would only have been able to acquire 3,757 Bitcoin. That would only just barely make it crack top 20 of Bitcoin holdings for public companies. It’s not even going to get in the top 10 at that point if all of its income of for those positive earnings was to go into Bitcoin. And Jeff further goes back here and and shows that in the last 21 quarters they actually lost 18,193 Bitcoin of value. So you can see when you start to use Bitcoin as a unit of account for these earnings, things start to look pretty bad for companies that aren’t actively acquiring Bitcoin. So you can see here, these are the positive earnings. This is when it’s actually started to be able to acquire Bitcoin. And there’s these quarters of just um net losses of massive amounts of Bitcoin. Door Dash uh is on the chart here as well at 95 and it’s basically a company where people hire a private driver to uh drive around a burrito for people and it has a negative $19,000 Bitcoin of net income valued at 12.5 billion of loss at today’s Bitcoin price. So an incredibly dire situation looking at these companies and their ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future. So they might have some positive cash flows, but as the price of Bitcoin goes up, the relation of the amount of Bitcoin that they can acquire with those cash flows is really skewed because the Bitcoin continues to go up in value more than these companies are going to be able to grow their cash flows. So with that means the ability to buy less Bitcoin over time. And this is going to be a trend for basically every company, especially in relation to balance sheets when you start looking at Bitcoin treasury companies. But uh companies have to be growing incredibly fast to be able to acquire more Bitcoin into the future. Let’s take a look at Strategy instead. The frontr runner, the massive leader, the real big uh Bitcoin treasury company out there. This is their dashboard, strategy.com. We can see the amount of Bitcoin they hold is 628,791. So if we evaluate them just on the Bitcoin holdings alone, they are valued at $73.9 billion. That’s the Bitcoin value of their holding. And you can see here this fluctuates based on their ability to add more Bitcoin to this and the value of Bitcoin’s price. So price of Bitcoin has gone up by 2.12 uh%. their MNAV has gone up by 2.12. So this value here is always going to be pushing as Bitcoin’s price continues to go up into the right because it’s a desirable scarce asset in the adoption curve. As the value of that continues to go up, the market cap of strategy is forced upwards no matter what it does by the balance sheet alone. And of course, they’re not stagnant. So here today, the Bitcoin’s price and the Bitcoin nav is the percentage- wise is the same. However, when they acquire Bitcoin, that changes, right? When they acquire Bitcoin, that’s going to jump up their Bitcoin NAV. And they acquire Bitcoin roughly every single week. And here are their purchases. You can see they’re purchasing when Bitcoin is down. They’re purchasing when Bitcoin is up. Since November of last year, they went just whole hog in buying. they they’ve adopted a huge amount of strategies to uh acquire a lot more bitcoin and they have acquired a lot more bitcoin since November of last year. So if we take a look here at November which is the 11th month they started acquiring a lot more bitcoin. We can see in the uh tens plus thousand of bitcoin per buy here. So here we also have the website strategy tracker and it is uh essentially these circles also the size of them corresponds with corresponds with the size of the purchase. So you can see over time which is again my my thesis here is that everything every business will trend to its Bitcoin holdings and its ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future. You can see here they’ve really ramped up in the recent time since November of last year. So within a year, less than a year, the size of these has on average has gone up. The uh the d the distance between them has gone down. So the frequency of buying has increased and the the average size of them have gone up. So there’s the ability for strategy to acquire more Bitcoin through out time and into the future comparative to its past. Right? This is what we have. We have all the way from their first buy here. We can see two massive buys in uh November. And we can see all these other buys are smaller than those but a lot more frequent. We have them weekly weekly buys basically and u pretty sizable amounts. And with the issuing of their new preferred offerings, if they find the volume and interest in those, they will be able to size up their buys based on the interest in those other instruments that they’ve issued. So their Bitcoin yield year to date is uh 25% so far this year. And this is 25% built on the snapshot of the year. Right? So when we start when we ended 2024, they already had 446,000 Bitcoin and then they’ve started to increase the amount of Bitcoin holdings and they have 25% more of that. So even though this number is not 75 like it was last year or 74, that 74 is built on what they started with in 2023 which was only 189. So again, these numbers, the Bitcoin yield is going to go down in percentage, but that doesn’t mean the actual amount of Bitcoin on the balance sheet is going to decrease. Their ability to acquire Bitcoin isn’t necessarily going to decrease. It’s a function more of their ability to issue preferred to operate the company and financialize products that are backed by their Bitcoin indirectly, not collateralized or secured, but indirectly create products that are backed by strategy and the strength of their balance sheet. So, the reason I look at companies this way is because Bitcoin is money to me. If companies are able to acquire cash and all they do with that cash is pay it back through dividends, through share buybacks, they buy other companies with it. They hold it on their balance sheet in the form of of some sort of debt like treasury bills. They’re going to be losing on average. All of those trades are losing trades for multiple different reasons. And the main reason is that it’s fiat. The main reason is that they’re they’re in some way holding a melting ice cube that is lowering the value of it constantly as it gets debased. Now, Bitcoin is the exact opposite of that. It grows in purchasing power based on the debasement of currency around it and besides it and it has a fixed supply and a fixed issuance that is predictable. So, uh it is sound money. It is sound money. And if you begin to understand that, if you’ve watched my previous videos, if you already understand what Bitcoin is, you should only value companies based on again their Bitcoin balance and their ability to acquire Bitcoin in the future. So, here are some companies that are doing just that. They have Bitcoin on their balance sheet and they’re acquiring Bitcoin over time and uh adding it to their balance sheet. So, the number one here, strategy, they have the most Bitcoin on their balance sheet. They have uh much much more than any other business. Um more than 10 times the uh the second here which is Marathon which is a minor. They have the ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future and they have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Now if we go down here we can actually see companies like Coinbase, companies like Tesla, companies like Block. They have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. But Tesla, what is Tesla’s uh, you know, market cap? Te Tesla’s market cap is $1 trillion. $1 trillion. And yet their Bitcoin balance is a tiny fraction. It’s only worth $1.35 billion, right? It’s worth a fraction of the amount that Strategies is. If we if we compare these two uh companies, right? $73 billion worth of Bitcoin and a market cap of 114 billion almost 10% right they they have essentially 73 times more Bitcoin than Tesla and they’re valued at onetenth of the market cap of Tesla you can look at all of these you can evaluate what is their ability to acquire Bitcoin over time what is their balance sheet and is their market cap reflective of that uh there are some companies that trade very close to their multiple of their net asset trade very close to the value of their Bitcoin. And essentially what people are doing there, the market is deciding that their ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future is slim. They don’t they don’t have the ability to up the amount of Bitcoin in uh going into the future. Maybe that’s true, maybe it’s not. Maybe there’s a misallocation of value there. However, just looking at Tesla, just looking at strategy, we could look at all these other companies. Tesla at least has some Bitcoin, but uh they’re not acquiring more of it, right? So, their ability to acquire Bitcoin. They might have some ability to acquire Bitcoin, but that ability isn’t actually being actualized. So, they don’t have the ability to acquire Bitcoin. There there is you either do or do not. There is no there is no there is no in between, right? Uh it’s it’s almost a Yoda quote, but it’s not quite. You either buy Bitcoin with your free cash flow or you don’t. And what you have here is you have strategy actively acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible. They are the clear winner here and they will continue to uh buy as much Bitcoin as the balance sheet of many of the other uh companies on this top 100 public treasury uh company weekly. They will do that. So there might be um other ones that perform well that are you know have a misallocation and the market begins to value them for what they’re actually worth. There’s all sorts of trading that can happen here, but but it’s very obvious to me that strategy is incredibly undervalued when you look at companies valued with the metric that I use, which is the balance sheet of Bitcoin and the ability to acquire Bitcoin into the future. Strategy has is the best metrics in my opinion for that and will continue to be the best. And I picked on Tesla a little bit. I don’t I don’t mean to say Tesla can’t do other things, but if they don’t have money, if they don’t actually acquire money, if they don’t hold money, then everything they do is in something that is not real. Fiat is just this um I think fiat is the alternate money system at this point with you know that may sound naive, that may sound delusional, but that is the case. It’s the alternate uh monetary system because it’s vastly inferior. Bitcoin is the vastly superior monetary network and it is the it is the monetary network in my eyes. Anything else is inferior and and less so thought of as a monetary network in general. So, all this is said to kind of point out how undervalued MSTR is compared to every other company in the S&P 500 and all the other companies in the world in that matter. The only other companies that compare to it are the ones here on bitcoin treasuries.net. And in that sort of space, you can decide whether what you think is what. Um, you might think other metrics are better and you might think some companies deserve to have a high multiple to the net asset because they can acquire more Bitcoin in uh comparison and in ratio to their Bitcoin holdings. And that might be true. The might the market might realize that and believe that as well. However, when it all said and done, whoever holds the Bitcoin has the power and strategy holds a ton of Bitcoin. And in the future, when they want to activate the use of that Bitcoin, and in fact, they already are by issuing all of these preferreds. But when they continue to activate the use of that Bitcoin, they will be able to uh use it. They’ll have more of a use case because they have more of it. So they’ll be able to do and dominate uh whatever sector and industry they want to because of the amount of time and energy that they have stored in the form of Bitcoin. Of course, you can also be like a treasury company. You can also buy the asset and hold the power as well by owning Bitcoin and you can do so through the link in my description for Bitcoin. Well, they’re a non-custodial exchange and when you sign up using my link, you’ll get free Bitcoin on sign up. I also have links, discount links for the blockstream jade down below. It’s a great beginner intermediate wallet and the uh start n which is a way to run your own node. I have the stamp seed kit 15% off of that. There’s a code in the description for that as well. And check out SATS Arcade which is a platform that I co-built which is a gaming platform where you can earn SATs just from playing games. So check that out. Link in the description for that as well. And of course, book me for a one-on-one. If you want to go over anything that we’ve talked about here and beyond, you can do so. Uh again, link in the description. Thanks everyone for watching. and we’ll see you on the next episode of Bitcoin, Not Crypto.
Book a 1|1 Bitcoin Consulting call with me
https://www.differentmedia.ca/
Where I buy Bitcoin (Free BTC & Non-KYC options)
https://bitcoinwell.com/referral/bitcoinnotcrypto
EARN FREE SATS PLAYING GAMES (Platform I co-built)
https://satsarcade.app/?ref=KYJP1BQ7
15% Stampseed Titanium Seed plates (BEST WAY TO STORE BTC PRIVATE KEYS)
https://www.stampseed.com/
USE CODE : BTCNOTCRYPTO15
BlockStream Jade Plus Hardware wallet for Cold Storage
https://store.blockstream.com/?code=DTzyNKA5Q8Sz
5% off Start9 servers for plug & play Bitcoin Nodes
CODE: BNC5
https://store.start9.com/
Become a Member of the Channel, Get exclusive content, and livestream playback
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2aM2gVVEHTu0pfE1ZyA0BQ/join
Follow Rajat, Jor, and I’s new show together
https://www.youtube.com/@MapleBitcoin
Join our Community
https://www.skool.com/maplebitcoin
Listen to this as a podcast
https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bitcoinnotcrypto
Fund my Documentary Series “Bitcoin Fixes This”
https://geyser.fund/project/bitcoinfixesthis
Follow me on Nostr
npub1zqm9zant0rxf49wfgw8pt5h0j50cetfes6hwa73u7sxstlzcsz8qh6x9fs
Follow on Twitter/X
https://x.com/forrestHODL
Donate to the show here
Bitcoinnotcryptoshow@coinos.io
bc1qnzxvnchtyqzk623rvnvnvvsjjsqt07y4xat6zslxzf8lcv8ku7uqf0qrra