Predicting the Next NMB48 Captain
What’s good everyone? Matt here with another NMBB48 vlog. Uh, today’s vlog is going to be a little different. It’s not going to be like a uh event report or concert report style vlog. Instead, it’s more of like a uh kind of news topic oped style vlog talking about some big news that happened here in the world of NMBB48. So, if you’re already subscribed to the channel, you already watch my videos, you probably already know what’s going on with NMB. But if for some reason you found this video, you found me, you don’t know what’s going on, I’ll give you a little recap. So, uh, a few weeks ago, back on, was it June 26, uh, the current NB captain, Karen Kojima, aka Cojin, she announced her graduation. This was a like a bombshell announcement because, you know, she’s like the most popular member of NMB, you know, best seller, very, very famous, very popular. It’s in the current NB right now. Um, and we thought maybe she’d stick around for at least another year or so. Um, but she decided, no, now is the time. And so, just give you a little more information about her. So, she joined as a fifth generation member back in like mid 2016. So yeah, now she’s been in the group for about 9 years, which is quite long for a member. U and she’s been like leading the the group for the past seven or eight years. So she’s been done a good job, you know, in the new generation, the new chapter of NMBB. Um and she’s going to be leaving um later in uh November of this year. She was appointed as captain in 2018 by the previous captain, Saka Yamoto, uh when she graduated. Um so this is a big big uh step for NMB. So now the big question everyone’s asking is wondering now is who’s going to be the next captain once Koji leaves. Uh I’m going to go over a bunch of like possible picks and rule out some obvious ones and kind of say my reasoning. And for this I’ll be trying to be as objective as possible. So I’m not going to be picking like any favorite members or like you know dunking on members I don’t really like. I’m going to basically try and do what I think be like the most logical uh objective choice for who would be captain for NMB. Um so we have a lot of members um you know possible candidates uh and I’ll go over some of those. So first I’m going to go over some like you know ones people thought maybe a few years ago these would have been the obvious picks but then whatever reason as you as time passed maybe not has not been the case for those members. So uh I think one of the uh obvious picks people thought early on might be uh Hi Yamamay Mighty um who you know she joined as a 7G member back in 2020. Um, and now, uh, I think maybe if it was like a year or two ago, she might have been a good choice, but, uh, you know, now she’s kind of up there in age. She’s 22 now and has been in the group for 5 years, which is kind of like the, uh, the kind of soft cap. I’m not sure soft cap, but that’s way, but most members kind of leave around 3 to 5 years into the group, it seems like. So, I don’t think she’s going to be around for a whole lot longer. So, that’s probably why I don’t think she would be captain just because of the age and time in the group. Uh, another obvious choice people thought, but also is probably not going to happen now, is uh, Kato Ktoski um, who uh, joined before Mighty um, back in 2018 as a draft three member. And yeah, so she’s been in the group now for eight years roughly. Seven, eight years now. Yeah. Yeah, seven years. Um, because she was really young. She’s been kind of grown to be captain. She had a lot of leadership positions like with Kunar during the non battle one. Um she’s also like non-bariety vice captain which yeah if you remember that little fact but she also young she’s 19 right now but you know she’s now been in the group for basically like almost half of her age half of her life is been in be so 7 years is a pretty long time being in a group so I wouldn’t be surprised if she will be sticking around for much longer. She might be on for around for another couple years or so. Um but yeah she’s getting kind of uh up there in like tenure in the group. So, that’s kind of like the the two main factors like when like just like when I’m like uh you know disqualifying members is basically age and uh time in the group. Um, another possible candidate, but I think it’s also be unlikely as well is Ayano Izumi aka Anon. Uh, she’s been around she’s joining the same time as Kato and is a year older. Yeah, she’s 20 right now. And, uh, you know, again, she also been in some leadership positions. She’s like captain of the Tinchi Utopia stage, which, you know, being a captain of a stage doesn’t really count. It’s not a real position. Um, whereas, you know, Mighty, she’s the current team in captain. That’s why I think she’s like would have been a good, you know, possible candidate. Um, but yeah, I don’t know, she’s been for seven years. And also, you know, she’s only started now. Not I shouldn’t say started, only recently, but like two, three years ago, you know, she started getting her like push, started showing up in Subabu, you know, with Non Bal 2. Um, but now it seems like she is kind of a a lock um for the time being, but also she could also be quitting anytime soon as well too. So, the reason why I’m not I’m not going over these members who like not too old or have been in the group for too long. Uh, why I think those are like not going to be likely options because I think NMB, especially with a captain, like group captain, they value stability. And it’s at least for NMB of like the last like uh, you know, like the first seven years or so, like you know, they value stability like people who going to be around for a long time. And that’s something I’ve noticed especially like with the newer generation bas like your fifth gen and under. So I guess basically the current members now you know uh they all kind of leave pretty quickly. They only kind of stick around for about three or five years. Whereas like you know your old gen your old guard back in the day you know they were around for you know 6 7 8 10 years or so. You know you have Chihi who’s uh been in the group for 12 years now. And so she’s leaving later this year as well. Yeah, I think it’s like the new generation I understand they’re weaker or just maybe the current idol landscape. You know, NB obviously is not as popular as they once were. So there’s not really much reason to stick around. Whereas back in the heyday of NMBB, you know, okay, members stuck around a long time because they were still popular, still relevant. So maybe that’s why the new generation members are kind of like, you know, burning out so quickly and also it’s much harder for them to stick around. Um, so there’s that. And I think this is why I think the captain has to be someone from probably seventh gen, not 10th gen, uh, eighth gen, ninth gen or 10th gen, more likely ninth gen, just because it seems like they have the balance of both uh, exposure as well as experience and also most of them good. A lot of them aren’t too old, also haven’t been good for too long. Um, but there are some options for eighth gen members that could get it could be in here as well. Um, but I think there’s a bit they’re right on the border. So like terms of like age and uh time in the group they would be okay candidates but they probably may not out of the possible pool of eighth generation members not a whole lot of choices for there and so yeah I think it’s probably going to be ninth gen or 10th generation member going to pick a member um just cuz like when you when Saka left like they didn’t pick like another first generation member or a second or third generation member cuz all all those members pretty much left like two three years afterwards and so that’s the thing you don’t want to have like be changing captains like every couple years that’s you know they value stability ility here in NMBB. So assuming management, you know, is smart, Kjun, I’m sure how much say Kojun has. But if soon everyone’s like smart and wants like NB to succeed, they’re going to pick someone who’s going to stick around for, you know, hopefully at least 5 years or even, you know, six, seven years. You’ll be here as long as Kojun has been here. Um, and actually if you look at the current roster now, so like after coin, there’s only going to be one fifth generation member left of Shy who’s definitely not going to be it cuz he’s too old and also not that popular and also not really a captain or leader. Uh, you know, sixth generation is basically gone. It’s just Shishin who’s also too old. Um D3 is more of where your kind of your more senior members are going to be like sticking around which you know when Kojin took over that’s when you had like you know your Akaris your uh Nagisas um the Mirus kind of sticking around kind of like you know help helping uh you know Kojin steer the ship like making sure she’s not completely off. So I think whoever takes over will be like in good hands like with a support network of like good senior members. But um this captain I think it has to be a younger member though. So um going now through more options of possible members and now these are members I think are more likely but also um also I think they’re not going to get picked as well. So probably up on there on the choice top list here is uh Mako Saka Maki uh who is now currently team B2 captain. She’s also captain of the uh Saraba Junjo stage, which again, yeah, stages aren’t real teams, so they don’t really matter. Um, and you know, she’s been like she’s like probably the most leader like of the uh beat of the eighth generation members. Um, you know, and she’s not too old. She’s only uh like what, 19? Yeah, 19. Yeah, 19. Almost 20. Um, been in the group for three years. So, yeah, not not too old. Could be candid. Only problem I uh with uh MCO is she tends to get injured really easily and kind of pushes herself too hard, gets injured and is out for, you know, weeks uh at a time. So, you want someone who’s always going to be like kind of still in the still around regularly. But maybe because now she’s taking on more of these like leadership positions, she’s probably not going too hard, going too sweaty with all the the sport stuff and so is not injuring herself too much. So, it is a possibility. Um, but again, burnout is definitely a thing here with the current generation of NMB, so she may not be around a whole lot longer. And then going along with uh Mako, there’s also her other her counterpart, uh, Sakatan, Misaki Sakata, uh, you know, also eighth generation member, same join, same time as Mako. Um, I think maybe she could have been a potential, uh, captain candidate. Um, and they’ve been pushing her really hard, even make her like center of the station lap time 2023. Um, which typically like okay, a centur station lap time is usually like you know the captain or like you know your ace kind of person, but uh Sakatan she seems like she has like some like like uh you know a lot of like you know weak mental fortitude and like she like couldn’t handle all the pressure and so she went on a hiatus you know late last year from like uh was October October November uh and it came back earlier this year uh like back in February. and just couldn’t handle the stress and so she came back. Apparently, according to fans, she has done like a whole 180 with like her personality and attitude now. She’s a lot more outgoing and talkative. But, I mean, I I haven’t really seen it myself personally, but uh apparently, yeah, she’s gotten better, so she could be a possibility, but again, I think she may not have the uh the the mental fortitude to to take up being a captain. And then going along with that, um probably our other uh eighth generation uh candidate, but al also slightly even less likely now is uh Yukino Tanaka Yukino. She uh yeah is younger than the other two. Um you she’s uh 17 18 almost 18 and uh she also took a break same time as Sakaton uh last year also due to like you know you know some middle stress and stuff like that. You not getting picked Sabatu wasn’t too happy. she’s come back and she’s seemed better, but also now she’s having some other um issues now of more like more like physical health problems with her thyroid. And so actually she is now on like a weird like kind of semi hiatus break like she’s not doing like performances or even many of like the events now. Um but she still is doing like social media and like Tik Tok and Twitter like that. So she’s still active but yeah I think because of her health issues she may not I mean she’ll she might get better but who knows like in has had a history of a lot of members who like had health issues you know like Horishon uh Kohhatan um a few other members have issues in the past and then they couldn’t really overcome those uh those health complications and they have had like either stand back for a long time and eventually graduate. So Yukino may not be with us much longer. I mean, I don’t think she’s going to die, but I think she’s uh may not be able to group because she just due to her doctor recommendations and the busy rigorous schedule of NB. Whereas, if she was healthy and fine, she could have been like a pos a really good like possible candidate for NMB. But I think with the health issues, it’s not likely, I’d say. So, uh yeah, and there’s also uh let’s say we got a Sakura Masuoka Sakura right here. Sakura um also has been kind of one of the more mature uh AJ members, but also uh she’s now pretty old now. She’s 22 years old and also she tends to have like a bit of a bad attitude. Kind of criticizes management too much. Complains about not being Subatu. Uh is getting a little bit support from fans, but still it’s I don’t think she’ll be uh captain either. Yeah, just do just mostly I think mostly the age isn’t anything there. All right. Um and then yeah, I think I’ll go down to our uh more likely picks which is ones I think are mostly knife gen basically where I think the most likely picks are. And I think the top of the list for that will actually be Wakatan Waka Albara um who um you know she’s ninth gen yeah ninth generation member so joined at the end of 2022 whereas eighth generation joined at the beginning of 2022. Um but for sakes, yeah, they’re basically a whole year under uh Agen. So I say they’re more fresher, less less burned out, less cynical, I guess. And uh so Wakatan, she was captain of the ninth generation stage where I think that actually is a more real leadership position than like a normal other stage uh captain position. And she also has been al kind of like the leader and like the big sister um like babysitter of the uh of the ninth generation. So definitely she has a lot of leadership potential. She also really loves NMBB. She’s a big NB fan. Kind of reason why she tried to get into NB for such a long time. I think she tried auditioning even as back as like the sixth generation member and like failed all those auditions. Finally got in with in the ninth generation uh back in uh late 2022. And yeah, she’s you know a huge hardcore NB fan. So just like how Kojin was a big NMB fan was kind of push her to join Wakatan. Also um I think the only thing going against Wakan is her age. So is she is a little older, a little too old for for preference. She’s yeah 21 right now. Um it’s probably ideal you want someone to be like you 18 to 20 to be a captain. But again she you know she loves NB as much. So she could stick around for you know a good like six number six eight years or so and uh you know could be a good captain for NB. So I think definitely she’s like maybe a top choice um for uh most obvious choice for being captain in NB. And then another option I have I I thought of it’s more of a dark horse candidate and that would be uh Honop Honkisha who is uh you know also ninth generation member. Um she’s also a little younger though. She’s uh uh 20 19. Yeah. 20 20. Yeah, she’s 20. Um she’s a very hard worker. She uh you know does literally every single uh theater show except for Tinitopia but you know does all the other shows like subs in all the time uh and super cool hardcore worker. Uh last year she was the number one uh Tini oh no uh Mega Theater Meami also most performances in a year and she’s already on track for doing that again this year cuz like she shows up in literally so many shows. So it’s a good hard worker. So I think yeah and know learns all the dances pretty well can help everyone even the seniors look up to her for support as well too. Uh her main issue though is she is very unpopular. She like doesn’t sell very well is even like turn that into a whole like gimmick and does like uh you know viral videos on Tik Tok and to make fun of for being unpopular. And then uh that’s kind of my dark horse for that. Uh another possible I think is maybe a bit less le less unlikely less likely um but a good good possible choice would be actually in the 10th generation which is the newest generation they joined uh last year about a year ago um and as with uh Kiyoka Tada. So she’s also the youngest member in the group which is probably unlikely too young so she can’t like you know stay late for meetings and stuff. Um she’s only 12 years old but I think they’re kind of treating her. I think she’s like the Kato 2.0 you know, like regen member like they kind of want to push her eventually. I’ll be surprised if she show up. She shows up in Subasin like soon. Uh they put her in the as the uh the she’s at the center of the tension song. Kas Kurama, that’s a song. She has like the whole monologue starting part with that. Um but yeah, she’s too young, but I think she’s very she’s very mature for her age, which you know, sounds kind of a creepy thing to say. I I don’t mean it like that. Yeah, I think she could be a good leader candidate. I think she’s basically one of the other like team members that gets a little bit more exposure compared to like you Kurami and Kottoi. Um but that’s yeah I think those are the kind of the choices like kind of frontline members. I think though you could maybe make a case for like I don’t know I I could see also Toma making uh taking a shot at Tim Jen as well. She also has like the she looks like a young version of Saiaka. So there’s that. And then we have like some other like random like possibilities. these I don’t think these are possible these will happen but I mean you have uh uh I think I mean psychic could be a possibility uh you know she’s a hard worker and is uh you know mature and you know is young enough she can just turn 18 I believe yeah she’s 18 so she can be in the group for a while as well as Tenna is also a possibility she’s like 19 or will be 19 soon she’s almost 20 um but uh she’s also a very hard worker and uh you know very mature but generally I think yeah the the because 10th generation doesn’t have enough exposure. I think not many temp members go with Kurami but she’s really old unless she’s planning to stay here for 10 years which I don’t see that happening. There’s not a whole lot of other choices but I think yeah Wakatan might be the number one choice if they’re they’re smarter and they want to assuming she’s going to stick around that long. There’s also her sister but um her sister’s not quite the leadership but she’s also a few years younger so she could stick around longer. Uh yeah, that’s uh that’s who I think is going to be it for the captains here. So yeah, a lot of good choices. I think yeah, whoever takes over the captainship, I think they’re going to have a lot of good uh like other members to support them. So like I think mighty, so she won’t be a captain, but I think she’ll be like even though the sent her, she’s like the uh the next generation uh second coming of Nagisa. I think that’s what her role would be. She’ll be a kind of like yeah the experienced senior member that can give guidance to the new captain. Um but yeah, you have Kato as like your your ace, you know, your Miru or Yuri equivalent. Um along with Sakatan as well. Um and then you have like your walk up kind of like your Akar, your wise uh center senior. So I think they have a lot of good like members. Whoever’s going to be taking over as captain, she’ll have some good support network similar to like how when K uh Coining took over, she’ll has also had a pretty good support network. So that’s very interesting. Um again, we don’t know. Well, we’re not going to know anything for sure until like, you know, by time coining graduates over in November. But we they did announce there’s going to be a uh uh some announcement at the Tini Utopia with band live over on July 24th. And uh yeah, they’ll have announcement there with all the members being present for that. I’m not sure if that’s going to be like a group like team shuffle or some other kind of announcement. I think shuffle seems likely, but they also might hold that off until the 15th anniversary as well, which will be like, you know, October, November, uh perhaps. So, yeah, but I think for sure we probably won’t know Nick’s next captain until after Kojun leaves in November. But, um yeah, if you uh like this video, you like this kind of like, you know, non-event report kind of more op-ed editorializing kind of opinion uh video, let me know in the comment section what you think. Also, you if you agree with my choices or if you disagree with my choices, let me know what who you think will be the next captain um for NB48. You like to see all the comments in the section and like I respond to them when I can. Um but yeah, uh yeah, so you can like the video, subscribe to the channel, and just let me know what you think. And I’ll see you all again in the next video. Peace.
I tried something different this time and did an op-ed style vlog where I talk about the bombshell news that hit NMB a few weeks ago involving the graduation of group captain Karin Kojima (Kojirin) and what this means for the future of the group, namely who is going to replace her when she leaves the group in November. I did my best to be as objective as possible with who I believe will and won’t be the next captain. Let me know what you think in the comments and if you like these more “news style” vlogs let me know if I should keep doing them.
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