【ウクライナ情勢】ロシアの石油精製所が炎上。今日もまたウクライナ軍の攻撃成功。ロシアの挑発により、ヨーロッパ各国は防空体制を強化し、ウクライナに迎撃用兵器の発注も検討。

【ウクライナ情勢】ロシアの石油精製所が炎上。今日もまたウクライナ軍の攻撃成功。ロシアの挑発により、ヨーロッパ各国は防空体制を強化し、ウクライナに迎撃用兵器の発注も検討。

Hello everyone. This is Kaoru Kamikawa. Today, I’ll be discussing the situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military’s long-range attacks on Russian strategic resources were successful again today. This attack targeted two locations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that they also attacked oil refineries in Saratov and Novokuybyshevsk, as well as an oil production station in the Urals. This video, taken by a resident, captures the exact moment a drone struck the facility. As a result of these attacks, the facility burst into flames, and nearby residents filmed the blazing scene with their smartphones and posted it online. Russian government authorities have urged people not to post videos showing the damage online. However, it’s natural that many people are concerned about such blatant abnormalities, and it’s impossible to prevent such videos from spreading even within Russia. Regarding the impact of the Ukrainian military’s attacks, the impact is spreading. Each oil-related facility’s share varies, with some accounting for 1% of total refining capacity and others for 4%. As a result of these individual attacks, approximately 40-45% of Russia’s refining capacity has been attacked by the Ukrainian military. Some have argued that this has nearly halved Russia’s refining capacity, but this is merely a superficial assessment. Russia has not simply given up and is currently working to restore what was destroyed. Therefore, British economic magazines, ignoring the success of the attacks, estimate that approximately 20-23% of refining capacity has been lost . This is because, even if the attack were successful, the extent to which core components were destroyed varies from facility to facility. In areas that sustained fatal damage, the fires have spread to the point where some facilities have had to be rebuilt. Other facilities have been replaced with parts produced domestically in Russia, undergoing test operations and returning to normal. Therefore, just because an attack was carried out does not necessarily mean that all facilities have been shut down. However, there were periods when facilities were shut down, and funds were needed to repair them. Furthermore, the resulting supply cuts have exacerbated the negative impact. The first impact is the fact that gasoline is no longer reaching certain areas. The Russian government is likely targeting certain areas to cut supplies in response to this situation. This is Ukraine, which is under Russian military occupation. The Russian military occupies eastern and southern Ukraine. Fuel supplies to gas stations in these areas are often severely disrupted, and gas stations across the country are running out of stock. Similarly, in the Crimean Peninsula and southern Russia, areas far from Russia’s densely populated areas appear to be experiencing significant supply cuts. On the other hand, just because gas stations are stocked does n’t mean that people in major cities aren’t affected at all. Gas prices are rising overall because supply is already declining. The Russian government’s excuse for the price hike seems to be that gas prices rose in the summer because it was the tourist season when people traveled far and wide . However, Russia is an oil-producing country, and even if demand increases , it is abnormal for prices to continue to rise by 10%, 20%, or 30% . The Russian government’s explanation is quite desperate. Ukraine’s long-range attack weapons are expected to shift from small aircraft-type drones to cruise missiles. They plan to continue increasing production capacity toward the end of the year, aiming to produce 100 or 200 cruise missiles per month. The range of these missiles is more than double that of conventional long-range attack drones, allowing them to target even more facilities. Regarding the Ukrainian military’s attacks on Russia’s strategic resources, it is likely that they will continue to inflict greater damage on Russia. Next, we will cover related news. Barter trading expands in Russia, with Chinese cars traded for wheat in response to Western sanctions. The title alone is enough to suggest the content is promising. For the first time since the 1990s, barter trading is on the rise in Russia’s foreign trade. Companies seeking to circumvent Western sanctions are apparently trading wheat for Chinese-made cars. A payment market insider said, “Chinese banks are refusing to accept funds from Russia for fear of being placed on secondary sanctions lists.” These concerns are driving the expansion of barter trading. In 2024, the Russian Ministry of Economy published a 14-page “Guide to Foreign Barter Transactions” advising companies on how to circumvent sanctions. Until recently, interest in such barter trading was low, but Reuters reported that at least one Chinese company was forced to trade steel and aluminum alloys for engines. While the overall value and volume of barter transactions in the Russian economy cannot be determined due to the opaque nature of the transactions, sources say barter is becoming more frequent. Another transaction confirmed to Reuters by sources involved the exchange of Chinese-made cars for Russian wheat. The Chinese partner reportedly asked the Russian counterpart to pay in grain. There have been no reports of President Trump imposing new financial sanctions on corporate transactions between China and Russia. Therefore, the recent reports of expanded barter transactions do not necessarily reflect actual sanctions, but rather a preemptive response to potential sanctions from President Trump, fearing they might become a target. It seems foolish to overreact so sensitively to sanctions that have not yet been implemented . Incidentally, this transaction is likely not disadvantageous for Chinese companies . It is Russian companies that are subject to sanctions, and Chinese companies likely do not want to be implicated in these barter transactions. So, who will lose out as this transaction expands? Essentially, it’s Russian companies. For example, if a Chinese company demands payment in wheat, the Russian company, since it doesn’t grow the wheat itself, naturally has to source it from somewhere. And since the wheat sellers naturally add their profits to the price, the Russian company that provides the wheat as payment ends up paying the most unnecessary money. From the Russian side, they probably want the Russians to just accept Russian currency without worrying about US sanctions, but ultimately, Chinese companies also prioritize their own interests and don’t want to take on unnecessary risks. Given these developments, even though the US has actually threatened to impose sanctions , this situation has arisen, so I hope the Trump administration will take a more proactive stance in imposing sanctions on Chinese and Russian companies. Meanwhile, regarding the EU’s sanctions against Russia, it has been announced that they will be decided in stages. The EU is considering phasing out Russian LNG imports one year early. The EU is accelerating its phase-out of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. They are considering measures to bring the phase-out period forward by one year from the original plan. While Japanese news reports refer to this as a “measure” and “consideration,” breaking news reports at the time of this video’s creation suggested that this had been decided after consideration. The global gas market is expected to enter a period of oversupply starting in the second half of 2026. Therefore, the phase-out of Russian gas is expected to put pressure on European gas supplies and reduce the risk of price hikes. This will likely be a tailwind for the EU as it decides on a new phase-out date. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine , Europe purchased a significant amount of natural gas from Russia. To achieve this, gas pipelines were extended from Russia to Europe, directly transporting gas. Germany in particular benefited from this. The German economy purchased large quantities of cheap natural gas from Russia, which served as the foundation for domestic industrial production. Having sold large amounts of energy resources in this way, Russia has also saved the profits it made to fund its current wartime economy. The EU’s sanctions are being implemented in stages, and as Russia tries to circumvent them, the next round of sanctions will be used to further thwart those evasions. It also indicates a path to a complete shutdown, which would likely mean the loss of Russia’s vast European market. However, there remain countries in Eastern Europe, such as Hungary, that are determined to maintain ties with Russia at all costs, presenting a weakness for the EU and NATO. Next, we turn to strengthening the EU’s air defense posture. The “drone wall” will protect both the EU and Ukraine. European Commission Spokesperson Rainier stated that the “drone wall” project aims to protect EU member states in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. The spokesperson reminded the defense and space commissioner that “work will continue on the future drone wall,” a topic President von der Leyen also mentioned in her speech to Parliament. “Because we have seen recent events in Romania and Poland, they have once again emphasized that the EU must protect and defend itself. And that naturally includes protecting our frontline countries and Ukraine from potential drone attacks,” he said. The term “drone wall” requires some clarification. First, there was the incident involving the incursion of large Russian military drones into Poland and Romania . In Romania, a large Russian military drone violated its airspace. Meanwhile, approximately 19 large drones and decoy drones flew over Poland, prompting the Polish Air Force to frantically intercept them. In response to this , there is now discussion in Europe that a response should be implemented not only by the two countries involved, Poland and Romania, but also by the EU or even NATO as a whole . This is where the drone wall came in. It’s a proposal to strengthen air defenses in Eastern Europe. Rather than relying solely on individual countries to address this issue, the EU has set aside a budget for strengthening its air defense capabilities and strengthened its response. Ukraine, meanwhile, will benefit from this strengthening policy. This is because there is talk of ordering interceptor drones from Ukraine as one of the weapons used for interception . Drones designed to intercept Russian military drones are already in operation on the Ukrainian battlefield . Russian drones fly long distances and land somewhere in Ukraine, while Ukrainian drones are waiting to intercept, so they do not need to have a long range. Furthermore , since they do not attack but simply shoot down attacking drones, they do not need to be large. For this reason, interceptor drones are said to cost 50 to 100 times less than large attacking drones. Ukraine has the most information on which interceptor drones are effective and have the highest combat capabilities, and it is said that interceptor drones are constantly being updated to suit the situation on the battlefield. Therefore, rather than researching, developing, and deploying interceptor drones based on a vague assumption that this will likely happen, some in Europe are saying that it would be quicker to purchase them directly from Ukraine, which already has such drones in active service . And for Ukraine, receiving the order, they would naturally add a profit on the product, so the larger the order from the EU, the better for Ukraine. That’s why the EU’s current plan for a drone wall not only protects Europe, but also supports Ukraine. Next, let’s look at President Trump’s actions. America’s influence on international affairs as a whole is enormous. The transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration has significantly changed America’s stance. One of these is a policy of reviewing overseas aid, with the exception of Israel. While the Biden administration provided military aid to Ukraine, the current Trump administration has limited it to intelligence support and has not provided large-scale direct military assistance. This approach is being applied to other regions as well. Trump has postponed ¥59 billion in military aid to Taiwan, possibly out of consideration for relations with China. The Washington Post reported that President Trump withheld approval of over $400 million (approximately ¥59 billion) in military aid to Taiwan this summer, citing trade negotiations with China and the possibility of a summit with President Xi Jinping . China opposes U.S. military aid to Taiwan, suggesting Trump may have been concerned about relations with China. According to the report, the postponed military aid included ammunition and autonomous drones, which would have enhanced the country’s lethal capabilities. The Washington Post noted that the Trump administration believes Taiwan, given its economic development, should purchase its own weapons, similar to Europe. In August, U.S. and Taiwanese defense officials met in Alaska and reportedly agreed to a large-scale arms sale. The Trump administration has pledged to strengthen deterrence against China in preparation for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but Trump has refrained from directly criticizing Xi and has repeatedly asserted that “we have a good relationship with China.” President Trump has begun to say that since Taiwan’s economy is developing, the United States should stop providing free military aid to Taiwan, and that if Taiwan needs weapons or ammunition, it should buy them from the United States at its own expense. It ‘s certainly true that the Taiwanese economy is developing, and I have no intention of denying that. The problem is that I believe the negative effects will likely outweigh the benefits. President Trump believes that free military aid is simply the U.S. government paying American companies, and is not in the best interest of the United States. If a foreign government pays, it is far more in America’s interest . While this is true from a purely economic perspective, President Trump does not seem to consider the negative impact it could have on the diplomatic environment . Considering the overall situation in Asia, other countries are also watching the change in the U.S.’s support for Taiwan . For example, in the East Asian context, some countries do not welcome China’s expanding influence. In the East China Sea, China has demonstrated a policy of rapidly expanding its territorial waters , causing intense friction. Some countries are opposed to China’s assertions, saying , “No, no, they’re trying to expand their territorial waters without permission,” making it difficult for such countries to confront China alone. At this time, it is the United States that is seeking a relationship, and how to build a diplomatic position between the United States and China is a major challenge for East Asian and ASEAN countries. So, if we look at President Trump’s decision to redirect support for Taiwan for profit alone, it may seem like “Oh, President Trump just wants money.” However, it’s entirely possible that Asian countries will see this as a sign of America’s reduced involvement in Asian affairs and a downgrade in its support, which will dampen their expectations of the United States . And above all, from China’s perspective, this clearly means a downgrade in America’s military support for Taiwan, so they’re likely to be very supportive of President Trump’s decision. After all , the Trump administration has not imposed any strong sanctions on Russia since taking office, and it has ended its military support for Ukraine. And now, it has also canceled its military support for Taiwan, intending to remain an arms dealer. Given these attitudes, I believe it’s entirely possible that China views the Trump administration as easier to manipulate than the Biden administration. Incidentally, under the Biden administration, Taiwan received 300 billion yen in free military aid. Americans may be unhappy that 300 billion yen of taxpayer money was spent, but as a Japanese person, I see the 300 billion yen in military aid from the United States to Taiwan as money used to protect Taiwan in the region and as beneficial. How you evaluate U.S. military aid varies depending on your perspective. I believe the Trump administration’s recent change in support for Taiwan will be a negative step for regional stability. What do you all think? That’s all for today’s video. Thank you for watching until the end . If you haven’t subscribed yet, please take this opportunity to do so. If you found this video helpful in organizing and updating information, please recommend it to others and consider sending a Super Chat to help keep this channel active. See you in the next video. Until next time !

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