リスク評価の例 重篤な呼吸器疾患の場合
right so we’re looking at the examples of um Rick’s characterization like Rick’s characterization but we are focusing on severe respiratory disease okay so risk characterization is simply okay we have a risk they want to see if this risk is a low risk or medium or it’s actually a very high risk you understand so for the examples of risk characterization um for example looking at the respiratory disease we said that for an event an example event a cluster of 22 cases of severe respiratory disease with seven deaths in a country X was admitted to a hospital and this was over the past 17 days the event is occurring 8 kilometers from the border and cases have been reported from three villages by local health care workers the area is actually the poorest in the country X and health infrastructure is limited there now many of the health care facilities they charge a consultation fee and consequently the local population self-medicate during maldi nurses because they can’t afford the consultation fee okay so they are also strong beliefs that strange diseases are caused by sorcery so they also believe in witchcraft you know so Rick’s question what is the likelihood of further spread of severe cases of respiratory disease and what would be the consequences that’s typed to the public health if this were to occur so the information used to access the likelihood of further spread is this cases are being reported 17 days after the first known case that will tell you that there’s a possibility of this disease condition still being on the rise the specific hazard that most of transmission have not been identified so it’s not fully understood it is also likely that some cases have not been dictated all right maybe mild cases some people still have it but they not actually showing symptoms you know so they are less likely to seek care from the health services and are therefore not included in the official report conclusion it is highly likely that further cases will occur if nothing is done okay so this how you can be able to what characterize risk okay and this in view is a respiratory infection that’s affected a place in the example
Risk characterization for severe respiratory disease involves assessing the likelihood and impact of illness based on various factors. Here’s an example:
Risk Characterization Framework
Hazard Identification—Determining the infectious agent (e.g., SARS-CoV-2, influenza, RSV).
Exposure Assessment—Evaluating how individuals come into contact with the pathogen (e.g., airborne transmission, direct contact).
Dose-Response Assessment—Analyzing how different levels of exposure affect disease severity.
Risk Estimation—Combining data to predict the likelihood of severe illness in different populations.
Example: COVID-19 Risk Characterization
High-Risk Groups:
Older adults (≥65 years)
Individuals with chronic conditions (e.g., asthma, diabetes, cardiovascular disease)
Immunocompromised individuals
Severity Factors:
Viral load and strain variation
Host immune response
Access to healthcare and treatment options
Preventive Measures:
Vaccination campaigns
Mask-wearing and social distancing
Early detection and treatment strategies
#respiratorydisease