外国人投資家がインドに数十億ドルを注ぎ込む理由 | 市場上昇の解説 | コアレポート
[Music] Good morning. It’s Tuesday the 6th of May and this is Govindraati Raja headquartered in broadcasting as well as streaming from Mumbai, India’s financial capital. Presently boasting some excellent air quality at an AQI of 50. Our top stories and themes, foreign institutional investors buy close to $5 billion in 12 sessions as the markets stay strong. Oil prices fall as OPEC supply overhang sets in. The rupee gains. CNG car sales overtake diesel for the first time. Hybrid is bigger than electric. And India’s real estate sales trends are now diverging across cities after moving in sync for some years. [Music] This is a call report with Govindra Eti. FII flows are strong. It’s an interesting triangle. Global investors see India as a safe haven sufficient to discount the concerns over an escalation and conflict between India and Pakistan on the border. Indian investors take comfort in India’s economic stability including lower interest rates and low inflation and of course the fact that we are not as badly hit in the event of a tariff war and of course the prospect of a favorable trade deal. The big push is oil whose prices are falling once again and help keep inflation low, manage India’s import bill and keep reserves in good shape. So even if several other factors could be going against Indian markets at a point of time, low oil prices could be one of the major offsets or counters. And then there are the US markets which continue to look as unpredictable as before. And not surprisingly, foreign investors are buying steadily into India. Foreign investors bought shares worth close to $4.8 billion or just under $5 billion in the last 12 sessions, the longest streak in two years according to Reuters, which added that the benchmarks, that’s the Sensex and Nifty, also logged their longest weekly winning streak so far in 2025. That’s last week. On Monday, the indices were up on the back of that foreign buying we spoke of, as well as renewed hopes of a trade deal with the United States, and the SEX closed up 295 points at 80,797, while the Nifty50 was up 114 points at 24,461. Stocks of the Adani Group were up on Monday after Bloomberg reported that group officials were meeting Trump’s administrative team to close a US bribery case against them. The broader indices did better with the BC midcap index going up about 1 and a.5% and the small cap also up just over 1%. The oil and gas index rose thanks to those lower oil prices after OPEC plus decided over the weekend as we mentioned yesterday to speed up oil supply hikes. Shares of all the state-run oil refiners like BBCL, HBCL and Indian Oil were up quite sharply. Low oil prices obviously help the refineries as it can help manage their input costs or raw material costs. The stock price of Mahindra and Mahindra was up, which also drove the auto index up after it reported March quarter revenue above analysts estimates thanks also to a strong demand for its sports utility vehicles. A deep dive into the auto sector and sales trends is coming up. On the banking side, Kotaka Bank fell close to 5% after it reported a larger than expected drop in profit as provisions for bad loans surged. And the issue of bad loans, particularly on the retail side, is something that’s not going away. and we will come back to it in coming days. On Wall Street, stock futures were down after President Donald Trump suddenly announced tariffs on movies made outside the United States targeting Hollywood. Futures linked to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ 100 were down, according to CNBC, which quoted Trump saying on Sunday that he had authorized relevant government agencies to charge a 100% tariff on films produced abroad, calling efforts from other nations to attract film productions a national security threat. It’s not clear, says CNBC, whether those tariffs would impact movies shown in theaters or movies on streaming services. Entertainment stocks not surprisingly, fell. All of this means that tariff tantrums will continue for much longer and could suddenly be expanded, as we’ve seen before, to include new categories, including ones that no one at all expected. What surprises me of course is how markets seem to believe or think otherwise and continue to assume the slightest pause or silence as positive news while all broader indications point otherwise. Which is also a good point to remind everyone that we are still on a pause when it comes to tariffs or reciprocal tariffs on countries like India and there is no resolution as yet. Oil prices fall. [Music] Oil prices fell more than a percent on Monday after the organization of petroleum exporting countries plus decided over the weekend to speed up oil output hikes. So more oil in the market and therefore lower prices. Brent crude futures were quoting around $6059 a barrel so just under $61. Reuters pointed out that the June increase from the eight producers in the OPEC plus group will take combined hikes for April, May, and June to about 960,000 barrels per day, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day of various cuts agreed on since 2022. An analyst told writers that the production increase instigated by Saudi Arabia is as much about challenging US shale supply as it is to penalize members that have benefited from higher prices while flaunting their production limits. Meanwhile, brokerages like Barclays and ING have lowered their Brent crude forecast following that OPEC decision. Barclays has reduced its forecast by $4 to $66 for 25. That’s 2025. And ING expects Bren to average around $65 compared to its earlier forecast of $70 per barrel. According to Reuters, the rupee strengthens falling crude oil prices and stronger Asian currencies lifted the rupee on Monday, taking it to 84 rupees 25 against the US dollar up about4% after having strengthened even further in earlier trade but then lost some of those gains according to Reuters. Now the dollar index and this is something that everyone is watching was down.2% at 99.6 while the offshore Chinese one touched a near six-month high of 7.18 thanks to expectations once again of some closure in the trade war between China and the United States which of course as things are looking right now is not showing any signs of resolution. Meanwhile, the big currency news was from Taiwan, even as Taiwan central bank sought to suppress speculation on foreign exchange markets, saying that market chatter was partially responsible for the Taiwanese currencies two straight days of wild appreciation of a kind not seen since the 1980s. According to Bloomberg, Taiwan central bank governor said that they solemnly urged market commentators not to speculate irresponsibly about the foreign exchange market as such comments could destabilize the market and potentially impact the broader economy. The governor also said that market commentary had triggered what he called excessive inflows from exporters and foreign investors into the Taiwan dollar. Those comments came after the Taiwan dollar surged as much as 4.8% on Monday along with a similar jump on Friday. This was the currency’s biggest two day gain in over three decades according to Bloomberg. Gold is up again. A weaker dollar and fresh uncertainties about the future of tariffs helped gold prices rise and this time about 2% on Monday. Spot gold was up about 2.5% to $3,313 per ounce. The dollar index, like we pointed out, was up about4% making gold more attractive. An analyst told writers that the US dollar is slowing down and that’s a positive for gold. More investors are betting that the Fed that’s the Federal Reserve will cut rates relatively soon after last week’s US GDP data came below expectation. And now with what’s going on with oil, referring to falling oil prices, CG car sales overtake diesel. Before we come to that, overall automobile retail sales in India rose just under 3% or 2.95% in April to about 22 lakh or 2.2 million units according to the Federation of Automotive Dealers Associations of Fada on Monday. All vehicle categories except commercial vehicles grew. Two wheelers were up about 2.2%, three-wheelers 24%, passenger vehicles 1.5 and tractors 7.5% while commercial vehicles were down 1%. Passenger vehicle retail sales were up about 1.5%. The interesting developments in car sales are the composition of those sales. Electric vehicle sales have grown faster than previous months and CNG and LPGdriven cars that’s compressed natural gas and liquid petroleum gasdriven cars have for the first time overtaken diesel. Broadly CNG now is about 20% of cars that is cars running on CNG or LPG while diesel is around 18.5%. Petrol is still the largest fuel category at about 50%. On the other hand, hybrids are now about 8.5% and bigger than electric vehicles which are around 3.5%. Electrics have done well relatively but have still lagged or continue to lag behind hybrids for some time. I reached out to CS Vigneshwar, president of Fada, which represents about 15,000 automobile dealerships with about 30,000 dealership outlets. And I began by asking him what were the major trends he was seeing in auto sales year to dates. that is from January this year till April last month. It has been quite an interesting first four months of the year because it started off with the auto show the Barat Mobility show and during the Barat Mobility show a record amount of EVs were launched and we can clearly see that the EVs were actually stuck in a gear in 2003 2004 at about 2.5% give or take point some percentages here and there but now we’ve seen that EV has actually gone to 3.5% which is fairly good growth given the base was low and we also see that things are to come alternative fuels are going to start playing a bigger role in our press release for the first time you actually released figures regarding what is a pie each of these fuels occupy diesel petrol even hydrogen which is very very small of course EV is hybrids and CNG RPG we have seen that in April petrol occupies 50% of the pipe which is acceptable But we seen diesel from diesel being the king in passenger vehicles. It has actually come down to 18.5. Your CNG and LPG has overtaken diesel to go to 19.67%. The hybrid versus EV the war EVs remain at 3.5% which is a good growth given they were at 2.5% for 2 years but hybrids are at 8.4% of the pie. So I think the ambition of the government to reduce dependence on petrol and diesel is working quite well because a combined hybrid EV and CMG LPG market share has gone as high as 30% right now. So which is a good thing more and more customers are expecting such alternative fuel vehicles and more and more OEMs are also responding right now whether it is hybrids EVs whether it is LPG or CNG more and more manufacturers are coming into this and I wouldn’t be very surprised to see in the next few years this combined pie going past 50%. Fuel breakup that you just gave that’s only for passenger cars or is it for all vehicles? It is only for passenger cars. Likewise in two wheelers it is 94% petrol about 5.4% EV. When you look at three wheelers it is 63% EV 11% diesel. So and CG is about 26%. Uh when you look at commercial vehicles it is 84% diesel and about 10.5% CG. Three wheelers which we’ve been seeing for some time now is the one category where we’ve seen huge EV adoption. So this is going to continue to happen. the last mile delivery ecommerce is becoming a bigger and bigger uh direction where customers want I mean they don’t want to go and shop they would rather sit and order things from their comfort of their homes on their electronic devices so this is going to become a bigger bigger thing to contend with but one thing very interesting which you also need to talk about we talk about pollution from different forms of the in the industry different industry is the economy giving different pollution ution. We also need to go and check the pollution levels which are coming off these packages. These last mile deliveries be very interesting to watch is something perhaps we can not avoid completely but is there a way where we can bundle these packages all these things would perhaps from the plastic point of view on the consumer side how are you seeing demand I mean for example let’s say how many people are taking loans to buy their cars or rather is there any shift in that number that you’re seeing and overall consumer sentiment and what kind of models are they buying more of so regarding the buy of finances it keeps changing according to the industry according to the the north southeast of India there’s a slight change in it but however we’ve been seeing in the last couple of months that banks and financial institutions are becoming more stringent and tighter with their lending we also seeing that that time when we introduce a customer to the banker and when the banker pays us is becoming longer more loan rejections are happening apart from that nothing another thing we are noticing is that banks and financial institutions are asking for more and more documents to process So this is a small impediment to growth. Of course the RB also looking at to bring more liquidity into the market. So all these things will help the market when you look at it. We are seeing the premiumization of the two wheeler market more and more customers want to bring in products. We also seeing that in the commercial vehicle segment a lot of the middle size vehicles are becoming less and less sold. Either people are graduating to smaller vehicles or to extremely large vehicles. When you look at the passenger vehicle segment, it’s again quite interesting there. We’ve been having a lot of EVs which have come into the play and alternative fuels are pushing, hybrids are pushing. So we are finding that this is quite interesting and we are seeing the rural markets in any segment is playing a bigger bigger role compared to what was 2 years ago compared to what has happening in urban. In the urban areas we are seeing that the cost of the vehicle has gone up multiffold compared to the salaries of the urban customer. So there is a lot of pay there which probably all of us need to work out. Right. Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you. Take care. Mumbai sales boost and national trends. Registration of properties in the Mumbai municipal region rose about 12% to just over 13,000 units in the month of April. That’s last month on better housing demand according to real estate consulting firm Nightfrank India. April 2024 saw about 11,648 units. Nightfrank said that Mumbai city recorded 13,080 property registrations in April and in March 2025 the total registration stood at about 15,000 units. But for April, apparently this was the best April in about 13 years in terms of property registrations. Now Mumbai’s strong sales numbers do not necessarily reflect a national trend and numbers appear to be diverging between and across markets and cities. I reached out to Gulam Zia, senior executive director, research, advisory, infrastructure and valuation at NightFrank and I began by asking him to give us a sense on overall trends this year so far and his outlook ahead. At the macro level, it suffices to say that things haven’t changed much. If we talk about last year to current year, while a lot of them want to start talking about a downfall in real estate, it hasn’t yet been so visible. If I talk about uh mega trends in terms of cities, it is essentially NCR and Bangaluru where we are getting some sense of cracks appearing. But these are again superficial because it’s too soon to conclusively say that markets are changing even in those two cities. But the other cities like Mumbai and Punea are coming up with very different perspective. Number of transactions are huge. Chennai and Hyderabad actually Hyderabad is also slightly softening but Chennai is doing well. So different cities are behaving differently right now. So there is no one trend fitting all cities. That’s one part. But in terms of product type you know the luxury continues to be the flavor of the day which defies even the regionalities like luxury is doing well in Gorgama in Delhi luxury is doing well again in Bangaluru and of course in Mumbai and Punea luxury is doing fantastic fabulously well so luxury is one segment which is kind of eating into mid to low end of the market because every developer worth his salt is actually shifting to the lowhanging fruits and trying to enjoy the benefits of doing luxury where it is selling like hot cakes but low-end market nobody’s touching. So affordable housing is the biggest loser in this entire game of luxury markets going up and that’s where I am worried because in times to come with Pradhan Mantri Aasja 2.0 already rolled out in last October 2020 2024 and now the interest home loan interest rates are softening. So with these two of course the interest rates are impacting the lower end of the market the most and the reason why the transactions are not picking up one of them was interest rates going high now that it is softening up as well as Pani a huge benefits are also coming along I’m worried that in times to come there’ll be huge demand for luxury housing but no supply because every developer is catering to the upper end of the market alone so these are a few key trends I wanted to bring up to you right after a while or that you’re seeing this kind of variance between cities and city pairs like you talked about Mumbai, Punea, Bangalore, NCR and Hyderabad which is on a slightly different path because usually they all cities were at least for a couple of years seem to be all moving in the same direction. Yeah, which was true when things are falling apart. Pretty much every city was going through a tough time. But NCR has actually had much longer a recessionary period than other cities. Whereas Hyderabad had actually moved out of those shadows after settlement of political issues etc. So last 7 8 years were good bumper year for Hyderabad because it was kind of starting a fresh kind of starting on a with a new chapter altogether. But even there a fatigue has crept in. So while you’re right more or less most of these cities do you know gradually tend to behave in a same manner but this is that time when there is a little dynamism because all you know this is a signal that the markets have saturated in times to come you need to worry about the cycle changing and it is right now appearing in as I said NCR and Bangalu in times to come other cities may also follow suit. So this is what I want to tell you that this could be one of the early signs of a fatigue creeping in the market, right? Mumbai seems to be not seeing any fatigue because you had 13,000 registrations last month. How are you seeing Mumbai? Is it powering ahead on a completely different trajectory as compared to other places? Well, here I would also want to highlight why Mumbai has been doing so well on the luxury side of it. Of course it was huge amount of wealth created on stock exchanges on equity markets etc. So a lot of those profit bookings have flown into real estate but last six seven months have been different on that front. So again I’m worried from the demand side supply side of course is uh going great guns right now but how long will it last is a concern and in my view the way things are poised I don’t think it will continue the way it has been going on for last 2 three years. So signs of cracks may not have been evident yet but it’s a worrisome situation because there is a limitation to the demand that we always thought and every developer you know typical her mentality is focusing on super luxury the upper end of it but there will be a limit to how much of demand would you have there and that is already there are concerns rising in that direction right and if I were to now ask you to give us an outlook for the next few months which is a little more composite what would you say as in where are Are you feeling optimistic if within this and where are you not feeling so optimistic? I’m not really thinking of much changing in next quarter or two because even if it’s an early sign of some slowdown in a few markets I would say I have to really look at rolling averages of last 8 10 quarters I can’t just talk about one quarter because it can be an outlier. So I would watch out. I don’t want to believe that there is much of a change happening in a quarter or two. Maybe four five quarters things may start slowing down very very prominently and conspicuously but for the moment we have to pick up those small changes, small signals emanating from here and there and those signals are talking about slowdown but otherwise at a macro level things are going pretty steady for real estate industry per se. If there is a certain sense of consistency, is it because more of it is being driven by investors or is that number changing in any way? Well, it still is not too much of a investor-driven market. Let’s be clear because a kind of pricing in any case last 2 three years the price rise has been pretty high. An investor would not be very comfortable coming in at such high prices. So I whatever numbers or whatever estimates we have it still is not crossing you know double digit maybe 10 15% of investor it is still hugely driven by end user demand and specially the upper end of the market is not so much of an investor-driven market. Can you imagine somebody buying a 100 cr apartment expecting in next 5 years to sell it for 200 crores? Obviously not. So this is more of wealth preservation. As far as it’s upper end of the market concerned the term is wealth preservation. They’re not looking at doubling up the prices but if they spend 100 cr after 5 years 10 years they’re getting 110 they’ll be happy. So it is not so much about investordriven demand. It’s essentially the end users who want to really upgrade their lifestyle who want to tell the world out there that I have arrived. So it is more driven by that passion which the transactions are going ahead but nothing to do with investor side of it. Right. And if I may supplement that last question, for example, in Gurau, we’ve seen these big sellouts, reports of 20 25% NRI investments and therefore investors. So is that a standalone trend? I mean, does it run parallel with anything else anywhere else in the country? I suspect because NRIs are not so dumb to invest where in any case they are feeling the heat of a softening currency. So while the price rise could still be a reasonable say 9 10% or so but in front of any of such price rise if your currency devaluation is going to haunt you in future I seriously doubt if NRIs are falling for it yet unless your price rise would be 20 30% peranom it doesn’t make a sense for a NRI to invest in India yet gulam pleasure speaking with you as always thank you so much my pleasure all the best take [Music] Yeah, that was the core report with me Govindraj Ethi. Do stay connected with more of our coverage at the core. You can check out our website or sign up to our newsletter for our exclusive stories, one in-depth feature a day on www.thecore.in. Do also track us on LinkedIn where we usually post synopsis or extracts of our top stories and interviews. We would love your feedback on how we can make business more interesting and relevant including of course India’s vibrant manufacturing sector. So write to us at feedback atthecore.in and thank you once again for listening.
On Episode 573 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to C S Vigneshwar, President at FADA as well as Gulam Zia, Senior Executive Director – Research, Advisory, Infrastructure, and Valuation, Executive Director at Knight Frank.
SHOW NOTES
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(01:00) FIIs buy $4.8 billion in 12 sessions as markets rise
(04:44) Oil prices fall as OPEC supply overhang sets in. Rupee gains
(08:15) CNG car sales overtake diesel for the first time, hybrid is bigger than electric
(15:09) India’s real estate sales trends are now diverging after moving in sync for some years
FII Flows Are Strong:
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have pumped $4.8 billion into Indian stocks over the last 12 sessions—the longest buying streak in two years, per Reuters. This surge reflects India’s position as a safe haven despite border tensions and global uncertainty. Strong economic fundamentals—low inflation, falling interest rates, and manageable oil prices—continue to attract investors.
On Monday, Sensex rose 295 points to 80,797 and Nifty 50 gained 114 points to 24,461. Adani Group stocks climbed after Bloomberg reported discussions with US officials over a bribery case. Mid and small-cap indices also saw gains. Oil & gas shares like BPCL, HPCL, and Indian Oil surged as falling oil prices boost refinery margins.
However, Kotak Bank fell ~5% after reporting weaker results due to rising bad loan provisions—a reminder of ongoing retail credit risks. Meanwhile, Mahindra & Mahindra’s strong SUV sales pushed its stock higher, lifting the broader auto index.
Oil Prices Fall:
Oil prices dropped over 1% on Monday as OPEC+ sped up oil output hikes. Brent crude hovered around $60.59/barrel. Reuters noted that April–June hikes will unwind 44% of cuts agreed since 2022. Analysts say Saudi Arabia’s move aims to challenge US shale and penalise non-compliant OPEC members. Barclays and ING lowered their Brent forecasts for 2025 to ~$66 and ~$65 per barrel, respectively.
Rupee Strengthens:
Falling oil prices and stronger Asian currencies lifted the rupee to 84.25 against the US dollar (+0.4%). The dollar index fell to 99.6. Taiwan’s central bank urged caution after its currency saw the biggest two-day gain in 30+ years, triggered by speculative inflows.
Gold Is Up Again:
Gold rose ~2.5% to $3,313/oz as a weaker dollar and fresh tariff worries drove demand. Analysts say slowing US GDP and Fed rate-cut bets are also fuelling gold’s rise.
CNG Car Sales Overtake Diesel:
Auto retail sales rose ~3% in April to 2.2 million units, per FADA. Two-wheelers rose 2.2%, three-wheelers 24%, passenger vehicles 1.5%. Notably, CNG/LPG cars (20%) overtook diesel (18.5%) for the first time. Petrol remains dominant (~50%); hybrids (8.5%) outpace EVs (3.5%).
We spoke to FADA President CS Vigneshwar about key trends in 2025 so far—full interview coming up.
Real Estate: Mumbai Shines:
Mumbai’s property registrations rose 12% in April to 13,080 units—the best April in 13 years—per Knight Frank. The city’s robust performance is driven by rising demand in both mid-income and luxury segments, buoyed by stable interest rates and renewed developer activity. However, Knight Frank noted that not all Indian cities are seeing similar growth; while metros like Bengaluru and Pune are holding steady, some Tier-2 cities are witnessing a slowdown due to rising inventory.
We spoke to Knight Frank’s Ghulam Zia for a detailed market outlook—full analysis coming soon.
Watch Why Foreign Investors Are Pumping Billions Into India & get deep insights on India’s Market Rally with Govindraj Ethiraj, C S Vigneshwar & Ghulam Zia. Learn about FII flows, oil prices, real estate, and auto sales trends. Don’t forget to like, share & subscribe for sharp updates on India’s economy & markets!
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